Who is ruling libya now

Satellite TV is a key news source and many outlets are based outside Libya. Journalism is fraught with danger; reporters face threats and attacks. Some key dates in Libya's history:. AD - Arabs conquer Libya and spread Islam. Omar al-Mukhtar begins year insurgency against Italian rule. This leads to civil war, foreign intervention and eventually the ouster and killing of Gaddafi. It faces opposition from rival governments and a host of militias. For a brief moment, it looked as if the conflict would move into eastern Libya, as Turkish-backed forces allied to the Tripoli government, riding the wave of their successes, drew up plans to pursue the Haftar-led forces to Benghazi and beyond.

But the fighting did not spread, due mainly to U. A military stalemate ensued, with no active conflict. In subsequent months, the UAE began withdrawing its military equipment from Libya, a process completed by late Hide Footnote Russian-backed Wagner forces and their equipment, including Russian fighter jets, remained. Hide Footnote In the west, Turkey became the major military protagonist within a few months, providing air defences to Tripoli-based forces during the war and continuing to airlift materiel to western Libya even after hostilities had ended.

This state of affairs froze the conflict, but divided Libya into two main regions, with Russia and Turkey each carving out spheres of influence.

In principle, a frozen conflict in a divided Libya could have perdured, but other dynamics put into motion at the end of helped move along the peace process. All these interests converged within the political class to push forward an agreement over a unified interim government, which the Libyans believed would be the starting point for ridding the country of foreign troops and influence.

Another important element that made an agreement on a unity government more palatable, at least in the eyes of pro-Haftar constituencies, was progress in addressing financial disputes that have tarnished relations between Tripoli and its eastern rivals for years.

In exchange, the east-based government committed to stopping its use of parallel revenue sources, such as treasury bills, on which they had relied since Moreover, also in early February, the Central Bank of Libya agreed to offer a zero-interest credit line to a group of banks, for the most part based in eastern Libya. Securing their buy-in prevented them from torpedoing local political mediation efforts. Thirdly, they supported and sometimes hosted the economic track negotiations that helped pave the way for some of the above-mentioned financial agreements.

In January , the four states that had severed ties with Qatar in , including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain, agreed to formally end their four-year dispute with the country and lift their economic blockade; they had accused Qatar of supporting opposition movements on their soil, funding the Muslim Brotherhood region-wide and promoting Islamist militancy, including in Libya.

Hide Footnote The nominal end of this intra-Gulf Cooperation Council squabble led to restoration of diplomatic relations and increased bilateral economic cooperation. At the same time, back-channel communications resumed between Egypt and Turkey, paving the way for what may be a tentative rapprochement — even if big disagreements remain.

Hide Footnote That said, the two countries seem now aligned in their Libya policy. They both support the national unity government and the roadmap toward elections. But the presence of Turkish forces and Ankara-recruited Syrian contract fighters in Libya remains a sticking point. In Libya itself, war fatigue has long been widespread, along with an aspiration to see a functional government in place after years of disarray.

When they took stock of the new military realities, the changing regional environment, the eroding economy and the deteriorating security landscape of divided Libya, they realised that they had more to gain from a political process than an indefinite military confrontation. The logical next step was to cooperate in, rather than obstruct, choosing a new prime minister.

Haftar and his entourage, in particular, came to understand that, with their defeat in Tripoli and a UAE recalibration of its foreign policy priorities, the Emirati military and financial support on which they had depended might be coming to an end. They also anticipated that, unlike former U.

Some Libyan stakeholders close to Haftar were also under the impression that the Biden administration would not overlook the multiple human rights abuses and killings that Haftar affiliates allegedly perpetrated in eastern Libya and during the Tripoli war. Hide Footnote For this reason, they advised him to be cooperative with the new authorities. Additionally, pro-Haftar politicians had to fend off growing public discontent over the declining security and economic situation in areas under his control.

As a result, the pro-Haftar camp lacked sufficient leverage to repeat the past strategy of obstructing UN-backed Libyan leaders and instead chose to work with them, though neither the new prime minister nor the Presidency Council members are their allies. The head of the Tobruk-based assembly, Aghela Saleh, also collaborated with the new authorities, to the surprise of many Libyans who believed he would obstruct the parliamentary approval process, as he had with the Government of National Accord in This time, the reverse occurred.

His new attitude reflects both the shifting regional consensus and his personal choice to emerge as the leading pro-reconciliation champion in eastern Libya. In western Libya, where support for Faiez Serraj had long eroded, it was no surprise that most politicians and military leaders supported the political process.

Additionally, Dabaiba comes from a millionaire family in Misrata that, after severing ties with the Qadhafi regime, helped finance rebel groups and still enjoys the support of some of these militias. Libyan big business also backed him, hoping that a business-savvy and pragmatic leader will relaunch a failing economy and unlock public-sector investments [fn] Crisis Group telephone interviews, Libyan politicians and analysts, February and March Hide Footnote But they lacked leverage to change the course of events, especially in view of widespread popular and foreign support for the interim government.

Despite the momentous progress, the new authorities face numerous challenges as they try to knit a war-torn country back together and prepare the ground for elections in late They need to foster reconciliation between rival factions, seek redress for the crimes committed during years of war and improve living conditions for ordinary Libyans.

For these things to happen, the government will need parliament to pass the budget, which it has failed to do to date. The new leadership also has to complete the arduous task of uniting still divided military and financial institutions. These things aside, two immediate challenges loom that, if not resolved, could jeopardise any transition toward a more stable future. Libyan factions have yet to settle a number of interlocking problems with the electoral roadmap.

In November , Libyan representatives agreed to hold elections at the end of , as enshrined in the UN-backed roadmap, which states in generic terms that parliamentary and presidential elections will take place at the end of the year. They set the election date for 24 December Hide Footnote But the roadmap does not specify whether these should take place after the approval of a draft constitution completed in but never put to a vote or regardless of it.

The Assembly passed it to the House of Representatives, which was supposed to submit it to a referendum. But the referendum has yet to take place, leaving the draft constitution in limbo. Hide Footnote As a result, although a date for elections was set, there is still no consensus on whether to hold a referendum on the draft constitution first or whether to move ahead with elections, and, if so, whether a presidential election should accompany the parliamentary vote.

Adding a layer of complexity are key questions behind these unresolved issues. One is what law should govern a referendum if that vote comes first. The disagreement boils down to whether legislators should uphold or modify an October law passed by the Tobruk-based House of Representatives. Before the amendment, Libya was considered a single voting district solely for the purposes of a referendum, in the sense that two thirds of the voters in the country would need to vote in favour of the draft constitution for it to pass.

For other elections, such as parliamentary ones, however, Libya is divided into thirteen electoral districts, meaning that voters in an electoral district can vote only for candidates running in that area. To revoke the law, legislators would need to pass another constitutional amendment. Hide Footnote Previous legislation required two thirds of the national electorate to approve the proposed constitution for it to come into force. Pro-Haftar parliamentary factions introduced the additional stage of region-based approval with the unstated aim of sabotaging the new constitution.

Anti-Haftar factions in the west, including some parliamentarians who had boycotted the Tobruk-based house at the time, criticised the reform. Still, it remains legally valid. They see drawing new electoral lines between the three provinces as the first step toward partitioning the country.

Hide Footnote There is a practical consideration as well. The debate over whether elections should be solely for a new parliament or also for the head of state is even more polarising. Political factions generally agree on the former but are divided on the latter. The constitution drafting assembly, elected in , reached agreement to enshrine a presidential vote through universal suffrage in the draft constitution and thus empower a directly elected president.

But there is no broader consensus on the matter among Libyan political factions today. Many Libyans, in particular those with ties to the Qadhafi regime and those aligned with the Haftar camp, favour a direct presidential election, contending that people have a legitimate aspiration to choose the head of state.

Hide Footnote Yet they generally dislike the draft constitution as a whole, even if they like that provision. Another issue of contention, not explicitly mentioned but believed to have driven the anti-constitution campaign from the outset, was that military officers were barred from presidential office, which would have made it impossible for Haftar to run.

Crisis Group interviews, legal scholars, Benghazi, Tunis, In , USIP will convene decision makers and youth in dialogue around pressing issues in eastern Libya. USIP works with local and international partners to produce unique, timely, and policy-relevant research. To date, USIP has produced reports covering: the state of prisons and detention, the significance of tribal authorities and their role in justice and security, the prospects of elections, the secure release of sensitive detainees, and drug trafficking and use, among others.

The office works with local, national, and international partners to reduce and prevent violent conflict in the Middle East and North Africa, including on-the-ground in Libya with local staff. Over Ubari residents gathered in September to formally inaugurate the open-air marketplace, which includes a community park for recreation. After a decade of war and division, Libya has made progress toward peace this year.

The GNU is a provisional body meant to lead the country to long-delayed elections on December While some progress has been made — a cease-fire agreement has been signed and the executive has been unified — many challenges remain. He has 21 days to form a cabinet and another three weeks to win a vote of confidence in parliament.

By March 19, at the latest, he should be ready to forge ahead with a month transition aimed at preparing the country for elections on December World powers, including the United States and Russia, welcomed the vote in Geneva, but some analysts, and Libyans themselves, remain sceptical.